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Ugandans are preparing to vote in an election that is expected to result in Yoweri Museveni extending his nearly four-decade grip on power in the east African country, after a campaign beset by violence.

Security forces have frequently clamped down on supporters of Museveni’s main opponent, Bobi Wine, by teargassing and shooting bullets at events and detaining people. Authorities have also arrested civil society members and suspended rights groups. On Tuesday, they shut down internet access and limited mobile phone services countrywide.

The actions have prompted fears of unrest around the polls, similar to the violence that followed the general election in Tanzania in October when hundreds of people were killed.

Observers say the government’s reaction shows the ruling party, the National Resistance Movement (NRM), is facing its biggest test yet, and the election risks further dividing Uganda.

Museveni is seeking his seventh term, and most Ugandans have not lived under another president. Younger people, in particular, have connected with Wine, a 43-year-old singer turned politician, and say they are concerned about their futures.

Museveni became Uganda’s ninth president in 1986 after leading rebels in a five-year civil war. He led the country to economic growth and democratic change after years of political decay by autocratic governments.

But hopes of enduring change dwindled amid accusations of corruption, authoritarianism, repression and curtailment of judicial independence. Critics have also condemned his extended stay in office, achieved by using tactics to lengthen his term indefinitely including by twice changing the constitution.

“[Wine’s] challenge has brought to the surface the character of the regime in terms of tolerating political alternatives or dissent,” said the political historian Mwambutsya Ndebesa. “The political class is getting more and more politically polarised. And that threatens the stability of the country because Uganda is prone to political instability.”

In the run-up to the election, which will also feature parliamentary votes, police and the military have frequently broken up Wine’s campaign events using teargas and gunshots and by bludgeoning his supporters. At least one person has been killed and hundreds have been arrested.

In December, police detained Sarah Bireete, a rights activist and government critic who had raised concerns about discrepancies in the registry of voters. On Tuesday, the government ordered several rights groups that have denounced violations during the campaign period to stop their work.

A report by the UN human rights office last week accused Ugandan authorities of using laws enacted or amended since 2021 to entrench repression and restrict rights ahead of the election, which it said would take place in an environment marked by widespread repression and intimidation.

The government has said the actions of the security forces are in response to what it termed lawless conduct by opposition supporters. In a televised address on New Year’s Eve, Museveni advised security forces to use more teargas to break up the crowds of “the criminal opposition”.

“Everything is done to frustrate and annoy,” said the human rights lawyer Eron Kiiza at a briefing on the election last week, referring to disruptions of opposition events by security agencies. Kiiza was allegedly tortured and detained without trial last year while representing the jailed opposition politician Kizza Besigye, who has been in prison for 14 months over what critics say are politically motivated charges, and Besigye’s aide Hajj Obeid Lutale.

Museveni, 81, often credits NRM with bringing peace and development to Uganda. Under the slogan “protecting the gains”, he is promising wealth and job creation and to grow the economy partly through value addition for agricultural exports and oil production, which is expected to start this year.

Festus Kezire, an NRM supporter in Serere district in eastern Uganda, said Museveni’s introduction of free primary and secondary education was one of the reasons he would vote for him. He said: “He has restored peace and stability in Uganda and this has helped end many years of civil strife.”

Museveni is campaigning against seven opposition candidates, the main challenger being Wine, whose real name is Robert Kyagulanyi, of the National Unity Platform (NUP). The two faced off in the last election in 2021, with Museveni winning with 58.38% of the vote and Wine garnering 35.08%.

Wine’s manifesto promises “a complete reset of Uganda”, including by upholding human rights and ending corruption.

Florence Naluyiba, an NUP supporter in Wakiso district in central Uganda, said she would vote for Wine because “Uganda needs change”. “Our dream is to have president who will prioritise social service delivery. Bobi Wine has taken the risk to stand up for Ugandans at the expense of his freedom.”

Ndebesa, the historian, said the incumbent’s stranglehold on state power, resources and infrastructure gave him organisational advantages over Wine. “The winning [of Museveni] in Uganda is almost a given,” he said.

However, observers are keen to see what the election will say about Museveni’s eventual succession. He has long been thought to be grooming his son, Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba, as his successor, although he has denied this.

Across Uganda, 21.6 million people have registered to vote.

Additional reporting by Samuel Okiror